Sunday, May 13, 2007

Happy Mother's Day

I highly doubt my mom is reading this, but who knows...Happy Mother's Day mom...I love you.

So chapter one of the book is probably the most complex part of the book since it deals with ICM. It provides a basic explanation of ICM and also includes some reasons it is used and some very very basic application. Basically, its mostly written out, but I'm not satisfied that it will be understandable to someone who is unfamiliar with the concept. Its a work in progress. I'm going to Texas in a couple weeks and I'll have about 8 hours in the car during the trip (I'm flying in with my mom, but my cousins live in the middle of west Texas, so its still a bit of a drive). If I don't have it done after that I'll be mildly upset with myself. O well...its a work in progress. I expected things to be more difficult than I assumed they would be...if that makes sense.

Anyhow, since I suck at meeting self-imposed deadlines, I'm posting the hands from the end of an SNG I played the other day. This is some really basic stuff that can improve your extreme short stack game around the bubble (I'm talking < 1BB in your stack). I lost an all in to the big stack the hand before this sequence. I see sooooooo many people who get frustrated and just stick in their last few chips with basically any two in frustration. This is a huge mistake. According to a basic ICM calculator, there is still a 14.52% chance that (assuming we play equally as well as our opponents) we'll make the money here. If you don't know what ICM is don't worry...we'll get to that soon. Sufficive to say its a really bad decision to just give up here.

My apologies for this hand history converter. It really sucks and doesn't give as much info as I'd like it too. Its the only one that works with AP SNG hands though and its better than trying to read through long, ugly hand histories. I'll fill in the blanks the best I can. BTW, I'm playing under Duderino_AB on Absolute.

Here we go:

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t300/t600
4 players
Seat 1 - HAZELEYEZ26 ($4600 in chips)
Seat 6 - ROOFER45 ($2270 in chips)
Seat 7 - DUDERINO_AB ($170 in chips)
Seat 8 - DR_LOVE ($6460 in chips)


Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 2c qc
UTG calls t600 (pot was t900), Hero folds, SB calls t300 (pot was t1500), BB checks.


Flop: 3d js 3s (t1800, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks.


Turn: 7c (t1800, 3 players)
SB bets t600, 2 folds.
Uncalled bets: t600 returned to SB.


Results:
Final pot: t1800

This first hand is an easy fold. We're going to be facing an all-in situation the next hand even if we call and win, and we have a weak hand that will have to win 4 handed. No brainer.




Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t150/t300
4 players
Seat 1 - HAZELEYEZ26 ($4600 in chips)
Seat 6 - ROOFER45 ($1070 in chips)
Seat 7 - DUDERINO_AB ($170 in chips)
Seat 8 - DR_LOVE ($7660 in chips)


Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with ah 10s
Button calls t600, (pot was t450), SB folds.


Flop: kh 4s qs (t750, 2 players)



Turn: 5s (t750, 2 players)



River: 10d (t750, 2 players)



Results:
Final pot: t750

This hand we are in the BB and we are forced all-in since the blind is bigger than our stack. If we weren't in the blinds this would once again be a fold. Why you ask? Its very likely that we have the best hand isn't it? Yes. However, at this stage of the tournament winning the hand still would not help us enough. Even if we quadrupled up (which would be unlikely even though we probably have the best hand...we just aren't that likely to win against 3 other hands) we'd still have just greater than 1BB in our stack. The idea right now is survival...not building a stack. We need to put ourselves at risk as little as possible. Anyhow...we won this particular hand so now we've at least got about 1BB to play with.






Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t300/t600
4 players
Seat 1 - HAZELEYEZ26 ($4600 in chips)
Seat 6 - ROOFER45 ($770 in chips)
Seat 7 - DUDERINO_AB ($510 in chips)
Seat 8 - DR_LOVE ($7620 in chips)


Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with 9s 10c
UTG calls t600 (pot was t900), Button folds, Hero folds, BB checks.


Flop: kh 3d 10s (t1500, 2 players)
BB bets t1200, UTG folds.
Uncalled bets: t1200 returned to BB.


Results:
Final pot: t1500

The reason I folded this hand is somewhat complex. With blinds at 300/600 I'm left with T210 when I fold here. This again is a no brainer of a call just looking at pot odds. However, I think looking at tournament equity this becomes a reasonably easy fold considering stack sizes and the activity of my opponents. My thought process is this. I've got a hand that isn't horrible and could certainly draw out against two others, but I have one thing to my advantage. Since ROOFER45 has misplayed several hands and made himself a shortstack, he will now be forced in before I will. The next time the blinds come around he will be in the BB for all but 170 of his chips. Since I have 210 in my stack after I fold here (and assuming we both fold around back to our blinds which is very highly likely) he will either call for his last 170 when he's in the BB (HAZELEYES26 has been very active and will probably just push him in if the big stack doesn't) or he'll fold and be left with 170. Either way he'll be at risk before me. Obviously he is if he goes in on his BB, but then the next hand we'll both be forced in and I'll have him covered since I'll have 40 more chips. I would win against him exactly 50% of the time since we both would have random hands. At that point I'm making the money approximately 50% of the time. Considering that both the big stacks have been active I think its safe to assume that one of them will at least limp. This is great for me because, since I have ROOFER45 covered, I don't need to win to make the money here...I just need him to not win the hand. Therefore the more people who enter the hand, the better it is for me.

In any case if I call for my last 210 here with T9o I win the hand and stay alive about 30% of the time depending on what range you give the Button limper. Also, even when I win that 30% of the time, I'm still missing out on the money a significant amount of the time since ROOFER45 still has 770 in chips. If I fold here, I'm putting myself in a much better spot.

For the sake of not making this post any longer I'm just going to tell you what happened from here on out. We folded around to ROOFER45's BB, HAZELEYEZ26 pushed all in of course, ROOFER45 folded, we were both all in on the next hand, HAZELEYEZ26 pushed again with A2o and flopped a wheel. Both ROOFER and I were eliminated on that hand, but I cashed since I had him covered going into the hand. That my friends is the anatomy of a shortstacked bubble. Some of that was probably confusing so if you have questions don't hesitate to ask!

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